Are Trade-In Values Rising in October 2026?

The short answer

Not by much. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose 0.7% from September to 207.4 in the first 15 days of October, but non-adjusted wholesale prices still fell 2% over the same stretch (Cox Automotive, Oct. 19, 2026). Values stopped sliding as fast as they did in September. They did not start climbing.

Why "the index is up" doesn't mean your car is worth more

You might see the headline number and think trade-in values jumped. Two details from Cox change that picture:

• The index is adjusted. It accounts for mix, mileage and seasonality. The raw average price dealers paid at auction went down 2% from September, which Cox says is about the pace October usually brings.
• Supply did the work, not demand. Cox says wholesale days' supply fell from 28.7 to 28.2 days, while dealer demand was "roughly flat." Leaner auction inventory slowed depreciation.

Cox also says the mid-month reading is a checkpoint, not the official monthly number, and isn't meant to predict where the full month lands. The official October figure comes out in early November.

What it means depends on what you drive

Cox's segment numbers vary a lot compared with a year ago:

• Compact cars: up 5.6% year over year.
• Midsize cars: turned positive.
• EVs: up 6.8% year over year, but down 0.7% from September as more off-lease EVs reach the market.
• Luxury: slightly below last year.
• Pickups: still soft.

So a fuel-efficient compact and a full-size truck are not riding the same trend right now. If you'd like to see how dealers use auction data like this, our guide to what MMR is and how it affects trade-in value explains it. For the retail side of the supply story, see our post on 49 days of used inventory in September.

What to do with this if you're selling

1. Don't wait for a rebound. Cox calls the early-October firmness "a more stable footing, but not a buyer-driven recovery." Nobody knows how the full month ends.
2. Get real numbers on your car. A national index can't tell you what a dealer near you will pay for your exact vehicle. Offers depend on condition, miles and that dealer's needs.
3. Compare more than one buyer. How competing offers work explains how several local dealerships can bid on the same car. If you're also shopping, trade-in vs. selling outright helps you decide which route fits.

This article is general information based on a preliminary mid-month reading. Market conditions can change before the official monthly index is released.

Bottom line

The Manheim index ticked up 0.7% in early October, but raw wholesale prices still fell 2% and Cox credits tighter supply, not stronger demand. Compacts and EVs are holding up better than pickups and luxury. Your car's value is set by the buyers who see it, so compare offers.

Thinking about selling? Get competing offers. It's free to sellers, first responses typically come the same day (not guaranteed), and offers are confirmed after a physical appraisal.